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| [PHOTO: Bijoy Mohan/Flickr/CC BY 2.0] |
New Delhi/Mumbai: The HSBC trade forecast, released Tuesday, highlighted India's critical
role in world trade growth over the entire period till 2030.
As per the forecast, India represents the fastest growing
import or export partner (or both) between 2013-15 or 2016-2020 for 23 markets.
India's trade growth can be linked to its growing consumer wealth and emerging
middle class; investment in infrastructure development; the impact of Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI); its diverse range of exports and a move to produce
goods higher up the value chain, and its developing role as a supply chain hub
for Asia.
The HSBC trade forecast outlined "a dual speed trade
rebound as South-South corridors become more established, driving growth to
2015, before being rejoined by the developed world in the later part of the
decade."
According to the report, powerhouses India and China will
be joined by emerging trading nations including Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt,
Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant trade growth in the next three
years. As these economies industrialise, trade in higher value goods will
increase, reflecting the greater maturity of these faster-growing economies
with large populations and rapidly expanding middle-class consumer markets.
By 2020, HSBC expects that “forward-thinking companies”
worldwide will have exploited multiple trade corridors and partnerships,
created effective networked supply chains, and tightened efficiency in their
operations as a result. This trend continues through 2021-30, contributing to a
stabilising of trade growth which also reflects the growing maturity of
emerging markets.