Report predicts India to be fastest growing trade market till 2020

Wednesday, December 05, 2012
[PHOTO: Bijoy Mohan/Flickr/CC BY 2.0] 
New Delhi/Mumbai: The HSBC trade forecast, released Tuesday, highlighted India's critical role in world trade growth over the entire period till 2030.

As per the forecast, India represents the fastest growing import or export partner (or both) between 2013-15 or 2016-2020 for 23 markets. India's trade growth can be linked to its growing consumer wealth and emerging middle class; investment in infrastructure development; the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); its diverse range of exports and a move to produce goods higher up the value chain, and its developing role as a supply chain hub for Asia.

The HSBC trade forecast outlined "a dual speed trade rebound as South-South corridors become more established, driving growth to 2015, before being rejoined by the developed world in the later part of the decade."

According to the report, powerhouses India and China will be joined by emerging trading nations including Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant trade growth in the next three years. As these economies industrialise, trade in higher value goods will increase, reflecting the greater maturity of these faster-growing economies with large populations and rapidly expanding middle-class consumer markets.

By 2020, HSBC expects that “forward-thinking companies” worldwide will have exploited multiple trade corridors and partnerships, created effective networked supply chains, and tightened efficiency in their operations as a result. This trend continues through 2021-30, contributing to a stabilising of trade growth which also reflects the growing maturity of emerging markets.
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