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| [PHOTO: Goutam Roy/Al Jazeera English/Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0] |
By Yogesh Pandey*│(@yogesh_pande901)
Never before were Delhi poll results in India so crucial as this time around, thanks to the thumping emergence of a political outfit Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has been able to make headlines by all its acts of hook or crook, movement, protest and expose, thereby offering people with what they call themselves a best alternative.
The same party with some oblique support from section of liberal media and other anti-saffron organizations is now contesting against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for Delhi throne by challenging it on host of issues--water and electricity tariffs, communalism, crony capitalism, women security, corruption etc. The BJP under the tutelage of Narendra Modi got a massive mandate eight months ago at the Centre.
The importance of Delhi elections can be gauged from the fact that a small happening here makes national news and if a newbie comes with a victory, it will have a tall effect on equations of national politics.
Here are three probable scenarios Delhi elections can throw and their likely impacts.
#Scenario-1: AAP gets majority:
Opinion polls in India have already predicted AAP winning Delhi with comfortable seats. This if comes true will give birth to a formidable challenger to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the form of Arvind Kejriwal. Bitter centre-state clashes will ensue again over giving full statehood to Delhi and handing over the reins of Delhi police to state government. With this grown clout, Kejriwal’s party will be treated by the media as the main opposition party in and out of the Parliament providing a massive surge in party’s base across the country. AAP contested more than 450 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, a result of its good show in 2013 Delhi assembly polls.
#Scenario-2: Hung Assembly:
In case of a fractured mandate, it will be more interesting to see how AAP and BJP prepare themselves for the next big fight. In any event of hung assembly, BJP will be credited for refusing Kejriwal another chance in Delhi as pollsters have already written them off. However, the game would still remain wide open.
#Scenario-3: BJP wins:
The magic of Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo will come full-blown with their unblemished record of remaining invincible since 2002. Kejriwal-led AAP may fight for its relevance. Narendra Modi will retain his tag of most powerful leader for the next five years with no challenge from any party in India’s political spectrum. The win would put a question mark on media’s opinion polls that have given AAP majority in Delhi. BJP’s CM candidate Kiran Bedi will take over the reins and she would be dealing with India’s most ferocious opposition, AAP.
(*Yogesh Pandey is the Consulting Editor at news.BDTV.in. He can be reached at yogesh(at)bdtv.in)