 |
| [PHOTO: 401(K) 2012/Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0] |
Washington: The World Bank announced today that Zambia’s economy is
expected to grow by 7.3 percent in 2012, slightly higher than the 6.8 percent
growth rate of 2011. The economy has seen robust growth during 2012 in
construction, transport and communication services, manufacturing, and
agriculture, even as mining is expected to contract slightly.
The new World Bank report titled “Zambia Economic Brief:
Recent Economic Developments and the State of Basic Human Opportunities for
Children” notes Zambia’s growth performance in 2012 will keep it in
the company of fastest-growing countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), including
both mineral and non-mineral producing countries. In October, the Bank said
approximately one third of SSA countries would exceed growth rates of 6%
(excluding South Africa), but that the region as a whole, buoyed by new mineral
exports, would grow by 4.8 percent in 2012.
“Medium-term economic prospects for Zambia remain good
though dependent upon continued high mineral prices,” says Kundhavi Kadiresan,
World Bank Country Director for Zambia. The World Bank estimates GDP growth is
expected to average above 7 percent over the 2013-14 forecast horizon,”
concludes Kadiresan.
Construction growth in the recent years has accelerated in
response to demand coming from rising urban incomes and a marked pick up in
investment in mining and roads, the Bank notes.
In addition, rapid expansion in transport services in Zambia is also a
response to strong growth in demand from other sectors of the economy.
Telecommunication services continue to grow due to an expanding customer base.
The report notes that with high growth, government revenues
have also grown, allowing the government to ramp up public investment in roads
and energy which if implemented efficiently can propel the country’s growth
further.
The World Bank Country Director, Kundhavi Kadiresan said
that this is the first Economic Brief the World Bank is launching. Twice per
year, the Bank will produce a series of short economic updates that are
expected to support evidence-based policy debate in Zambia.
Despite strong economic growth in the last decade,
Kadiresancautioned that there was very little progress in reducing poverty,
particularly in the latter half of the previous decade. This was primarily
because of two reasons.
“First, the growth –
driven mainly by industries such as construction, mining, and transport and
communication – did very little to create new jobs and expand economic
opportunities beyond the small fraction of the country’s labor force already
employed in these industries,” said Kadiresan. “Second, the urban-centered nature of the
growth also failed to generate enough opportunities for roughly two-thirds of
the Zambian population who live in rural areas, depend on agriculture and have
seen incomes remain largely stagnant over the last decade,” concludes Kadiresan.
Moreover, the concentration of economic growth in particular
sectors and regions manifests itself in the persistent high levels of
inequality in Zambia. The Bank notes that policies that boost human capital of
children and youth could promote growth and reduce inequality in the long run.
For its part, The Government of Zambia welcomes the World
Bank’s first ever economic update for the country, noting the analysis can
better help the current administration to focus on core issues hampering
poverty reduction and inequality, now that the economy is stabilized and
growing steadily.
“We welcome these reflections as they will provide an avenue
for the country to tap into the Bank’s experience from its global reach and
vast intellectual resources in dealing with some of the pertinent challenges
that we face here in Zambia,” said Alexander Chikwanda, Zambia Minister of Finance and
National Planning
The report argues that pre-determined circumstances such as
gender, ethnicity, birthplace, or family income should not determine the
opportunities available to children to receive adequate education; a healthy
start in the first few years of life; and safe, stable, and stimulating
conditions for development.
“While school attendance has high coverage and does not
depend much on circumstances, finishing primary school on time and quality of
education depend strongly so. Opportunities for health and nutrition appear to
be universally low in Zambia and have a high degree of inequality. Access to basic amenities such as drinking
water and electricity is extremely low, and inequality extremely high,” concludes Kumar.
The report finds that some circumstances such as the wealth
of households, location in terms of rural versus urban or the province of
residence and education of the household head have significant effect on basic
opportunities available to the children.
“The findings of the World Bank from their analysis of the
thematic topic for this brief, “the basic human opportunities for children in
Zambia”, have significant policy implications. The link being established
between a child’s circumstances and access to basic services, and the likely
conditions for that child in adult life is something we all need to deeply
reflect upon,” concluded Minister Chikwanda at the December 10, 2012
launch of the Economic Brief in Lusaka.
The report develops an index, called Human Opportunity
Index, to measure the level of opportunities available to children in Zambia.
"Over the past ten years, the technology for poverty
reduction has changed dramatically. Countries now have the tools and the
information to reach out and help the most disadvantaged amongst us,” says Marcelo Guigale, Director for Poverty Reduction
& Economic Management, Africa Region, World Bank
“Few of those new tools are as promising and as powerful
as the Human Opportunity Index. It is not surprising that leading developing
countries like Zambia are considering adopting and adapting the Index in their
social assistance strategies", concludes Giugale