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| [PHOTO: UNifeed] |
Washington: The impact of climate change will be especially acute in the
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, according to a new World Bank Group
report, and immediate action will be needed to avoid the projected consequences
of worsening water shortages and rising food insecurity. Adaptation to a
Changing Climate in the Arab Countries provides a comprehensive assessment of
the threat to the region posed by increasingly severe weather, and offers a set
of policy options for the urgent task of managing current effects and building
resilience against those yet to come.
“Reducing vulnerability to climate change will require
concerted action on multiple levels,” said Rachel Kyte, World Bank Vice
President for Sustainable Development. “Political leadership now, will be
critical in establishing climate change as a national and regional priority.”
The Arab world has been adapting to climate change for
centuries. There is a long history and tradition of coping with the associated
challenges, such as changes in temperature and rainfall. New climate change
risks are emerging at a much faster rate, including the prospect of a world
that is four degrees hotter, and resilience built up over years is being
severely tested.
These risks have been identified and assessed in the new
climate report which was prepared in partnership with the League of Arab
States, involving specialists, researchers, policymakers and civil society
organizations from across the region. The report reinforces the warning that
decades of poverty reduction efforts could be reversed as contained in the
recent World Bank publication, Turn Down The Heat: Why a 4° C Warmer World Must
be Avoided.
Over the past 30 years, climate disasters have affected 50
million people in the Arab world, costing about $12 billion directly and many
multiples of that indirectly. Recent trends suggest that dry regions are
becoming drier and flash floods have become more frequent. The 2006 flooding of
the Nile River Basin led to 600 deaths, with a further 118,000 people affected,
while in 2008 a record five-year drought finally ended in the Jordan River
Basin.
Globally 2010 was the warmest year since records began in
the 1800s, and of the 19 countries that set new record temperatures, five were
in MENA. Regional temperatures are projected to reach new record highs, coupled
with less rainfall which, in a region with the world’s lowest endowment of
freshwater, could make this precious natural resource even scarcer.
A harsher climate threatens livelihoods throughout the
region. Extreme weather could affect both the annual US$50 billion tourism
industry and agriculture, already under severe climate stress. The combination
of higher temperatures, lower rainfall and increased frequency of drought could
cause more crop failures and lower yields putting MENA’s rural population,
nearly half the region’s total, under growing stress. Migration to already
overcrowded cities and vulnerable costal zones would accelerate. Yet a further
consequence of climate change could be the upending of traditional social
roles, as it is usually the men who migrate for low-wage, low-skill jobs, and
the women who remain behind with all the farming and community
responsibilities.
“Climate change is a reality for people in Arab countries,”
said Inger Andersen, World Bank Vice President for the Middle East and North
Africa region. “It affects everyone – especially the poor who are least able to
adapt – and as the climate becomes ever more extreme, so will its impacts on
people’s livelihoods and wellbeing. The time to take actions at both the
national and regional level in order to increase climate resilience is now.”
The report stresses that adaptation should be integrated
into all national policies and actions to ensure they are climate resilient.
This spans efforts from collecting climate data to strengthening basic
services. Accurate weather information is critical for preparing for extreme
events. Improved access to services such as education, health and sanitation,
along with effective social safety nets to compensate for sudden loss of
livelihood, will give citizens the skills and resources to navigate climate
challenges.