Asian-American think tank forecasts ‘tough victory’ for Obama

Wednesday, November 07, 2012
Washington: The International Strategy and Reconciliation Foundation, an Asian-American think tank, forecasts a "tough presidential election victory" by Barack Obama, capturing 294 electoral votes and winning a popular vote majority of 50.3 percent over the Republican challenger Mitt Romney.  

It is the first time a Democratic president is expected to have sustained such a majority vote consecutively in a row in modern history of American presidential election.

Dr. Asaph Chun, who developed the ISR election forecasting model in 2003 and proved its viability in the past three US elections, identifies Obama's keeping of the White House is grounded on "winning 7 of 9 battleground states including Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire" and capturing 19 out of 35 states that tended to follow party-line in 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections.  

The ISR G3 model predicts Romney would hold 244 electoral votes while reaping 47.6 percent of popular vote.  The Hurricane Sandy effect Obama handled as "Chief in Crisis Management" has neutralized the presidential debate effect confident Romney demonstrated, erasing Romney's 11th hour gains on the rise. 

According to the ISR G3 forecasting model, designed to reduce "polling house effect" and make a viable voting prediction of "undecided voters," Obama is expected to take an average lead of 7% to 15% among females, political moderates, and Hispanic and Asian minority whereas Romney's lead comes among  the elderly aged 65 or older, and White voters with high school or less education. Obama is forecasted to win among most other groups of voters classified by education, age, and income. Sampling error varies from 1.5 to 3.1 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence for different groups.

Among the 35 states that tended to follow party-line in the past three elections, ISR G3 model forecasts Obama's winning formula is settled by capturing 19 blue states mostly in Northeast, West coast, and Midwest, whereas Romney holds 16 red states mostly in South and Rocky and Plain regions.  ISR predicts that states to be captured by Obama include Hawaii, New York, California, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Illinois, Vermont, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, Michigan, Washington, Maine, Oregon, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Washington DC.  Romney is expected to win South Dakota, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, South Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, Nebraska, Wyoming, Alabama, Oklahoma, Idaho, and Utah.   North Carolina and Florida, both captured by Obama in 2008, may turn out to belong to the Republican candidate this time.
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