Washington: The International Strategy and Reconciliation Foundation, an
Asian-American think tank, forecasts a "tough presidential election
victory" by Barack Obama, capturing 294 electoral votes and winning a
popular vote majority of 50.3 percent over the Republican challenger Mitt
Romney.
It is the first time a
Democratic president is expected to have sustained such a majority vote
consecutively in a row in modern history of American presidential election.
Dr. Asaph Chun, who developed the ISR election forecasting
model in 2003 and proved its viability in the past three US elections,
identifies Obama's keeping of the White House is grounded on "winning 7 of
9 battleground states including Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada,
Colorado and New Hampshire" and capturing 19 out of 35 states that tended
to follow party-line in 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections.
The ISR G3 model predicts Romney would hold
244 electoral votes while reaping 47.6 percent of popular vote. The Hurricane Sandy effect Obama handled as
"Chief in Crisis Management" has neutralized the presidential debate
effect confident Romney demonstrated, erasing Romney's 11th hour gains on the
rise.
According to the ISR G3 forecasting model, designed to
reduce "polling house effect" and make a viable voting prediction of
"undecided voters," Obama is expected to take an average lead of 7%
to 15% among females, political moderates, and Hispanic and Asian minority
whereas Romney's lead comes among the elderly
aged 65 or older, and White voters with high school or less education. Obama is
forecasted to win among most other groups of voters classified by education,
age, and income. Sampling error varies from 1.5 to 3.1 percentage points at the
95% level of confidence for different groups.
Among the 35 states that tended to follow party-line in the
past three elections, ISR G3 model forecasts Obama's winning formula is settled
by capturing 19 blue states mostly in Northeast, West coast, and Midwest,
whereas Romney holds 16 red states mostly in South and Rocky and Plain
regions. ISR predicts that states to be
captured by Obama include Hawaii, New York, California, Rhode Island,
Massachusetts, Illinois, Vermont, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware,
Michigan, Washington, Maine, Oregon, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Washington
DC. Romney is expected to win South
Dakota, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, South
Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, Nebraska, Wyoming, Alabama, Oklahoma, Idaho, and
Utah. North Carolina and Florida, both
captured by Obama in 2008, may turn out to belong to the Republican candidate
this time.