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Washington/New Delhi: The economic euphoria in India over the last few years,
inspired by the country’s seemingly inevitable march toward double-digit
growth, has suddenly soured, Pew Research Center data revealed.
Although still relatively upbeat compared with many other
countries, the Indian public’s confidence in their country’s direction and
future economic growth has declined significantly compared with just a year
ago.
In a world where the Americans, the Europeans and even the
Chinese have reason to worry about their economies, it is the Indians who have
lost the greatest faith in their economic fortunes.
Indians today are mixed in their assessment of their
national economy: 49% say the economy is in good shape, while 45% describe the
economy as bad.
A year ago opinion was more upbeat, with a 56%-majority
saying the national economy was doing well, compared with 43% who disagreed.
Despite this decline, Indians remain more positive about current economic
conditions than populations in most of the 17 countries surveyed in both 2011
and 2012 by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. And Indians are
more optimistic about their economy’s trajectory over the next year than many
of the publics surveyed in both years.
Nevertheless, the trend line in India conveys a more
troubling story. Just 38% of Indians are satisfied with the way things are
going in the country – a 13 percentage point decline since last year. This is
among the largest drops in national contentment across the countries surveyed
in 2011 and 2012.
Meanwhile, the proportion of Indians who think current
economic conditions are good is down seven percentage points from 2011. And
only 45% of Indians think their economy will improve over the next 12 months.
Such optimism has declined 15 points since 2011, again the largest falloff
among the 17 nations with comparable data.
A year ago, Indians’ economic mood trailed that in China,
bested that in Europe and the United States, and was comparable to that in
Brazil. Today, Indians’ evaluation of their current national economic situation
trails that in China by 34 percentage points and Brazil by 16 points. And
Indian optimism about the next year lags behind that in Brazil by 39 points and
China by 38 points.
Indian satisfaction with the direction of the country is
descending toward that in Europe and the United States and hope for the future
has been surpassed by that in America.
Contrary to their view of the health and future of the
national economy, nearly two-in-three Indians (64%) say their personal finances
are good. This level of personal contentment is higher than in 14 of the other
20 countries surveyed in 2012.
But Indians are not terribly optimistic about their
children’s economic prospects. About two-thirds (66%) think it will be
difficult for their kids to get a better job or become wealthier than the
current generation. Such pessimism is relative, however. Among the 21 nations
surveyed, people in 17 countries are even more glum about their children’s
futures.
Not all Indians are downbeat. By a margin of 25 percentage
points, higher-income Indians are more satisfied than lower-income Indians with
their personal economic situation. Richer Indians are more likely than
lower-income Indians, by 13 points, to say they are better off than they were
five years ago. And by nine points, they are more likely to say that their
children can do better financially than themselves.
These differences by income group are generally greater in
India than those found in Brazil, China or Turkey, three other emerging market
economies surveyed. And they exist at a time when roughly seven-in-ten (72%)
Indians say the gap between the rich and the poor is a very big national
problem.
India and the World
India’s relations with the rest of the world, especially its
neighbors Pakistan, China and Iran, are increasingly important in the realm of
geopolitics. But for many Indians, especially those who live in rural areas,
the outside world is simply not part of their daily consciousness. Large
portions of the rural population have no definite opinion about other
countries, foreign leaders or international policy issues.
City dwellers are more globally aware. A 58%-majority is
favorably disposed toward the United States and they see America in a more
favorable light than they view other major world powers, such as Russia (48%)
or the EU (38%). About seven-in-ten city dwellers (71%) who say they are
following the U.S. election closely want U.S. president Barack Obama to be
re-elected.
Only a third of urban Indians have a favorable view of
China. And those who say that China’s growing economic influence is bad for
India are more likely to describe relations between the two countries as
hostile.
There is little support among urban Indians for Iran (28%),
and about half (52%) oppose Tehran obtaining nuclear weapons. Among those who
oppose Iran acquiring nuclear arms, a 62%-majority favors tougher economic
sanctions to prevent this possibility, and 69% believe it is important to keep
Iran from acquiring a nuclear arsenal even if that means taking military
action.
Pakistan is a neuralgic concern for Indians. Just 13% of all
Indians have a positive view of their neighbor. Nevertheless, seven-in-ten
overall think it is important to improve relations, including through
resolution of the Kashmir dispute (77%), increased trade (64%) and further
negotiations (58%).
Notably, Indians and Pakistanis share an animosity toward
each other. But both want their bilateral relations to improve.
These are among the key findings from a survey by the Pew
Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted in 21 countries,
including India. Interviews were conducted among 26,210 respondents worldwide,
including 4,018 in India, from March 17 to April 20, 2012.